Mandate playbook
See sovereign and market regime shift before credit spreads move.
For offices already paying for geopolitical and macro risk — a deterministic thermodynamic read on phase transition, not another analyst narrative arriving after the trade.
Live track record
Structure vs. perception
Markets price perception. The Index measures structure. Updated June 2026.
Global Financial System
NII 1.84
Crisis
June 2026
Conventional · VIX
16.1
Same period. Priced in real time — not regime structure.
Conventional · HY spread
2.72%
Same period. Priced in real time — not regime structure.
Blind spot
The blind spot in macro allocation
Family offices sit between long-horizon capital and short-horizon market pricing. Conventional inputs — country ratings, sell-side macro, VIX — measure perception or lagging financial stress. They do not measure structural entropy building across identity, adaptation, and courage domains before it reprices.
Geopolitical briefings
Event-driven and narrative. Useful context, not a reproducible phase signal with audit trail.
Risk premia models
Financial correlation without thermodynamic structure. Miss regime boundaries until spreads widen.
Internal IC memos
Subjective synthesis. Not comparable month-over-month or defensible under diligence.
Use cases
How family office teams use the Index
Sovereign and FX regime watch
Score nation-states and currency blocs on the same six-domain framework. Alert when NII crosses pre-crisis or crisis phase — 6–18 months before conventional indicators confirm.
Allocator rebalancing window
Use phase trajectory and domain divergence to time shifts between risk-on and defensive sleeves — without waiting for rating-agency downgrades or headline crises.
Counterparty and banking stress
Monitor financial system entropy alongside your direct credit work. Cascade flags surface cross-domain propagation before it reaches your lending book.
Next-gen principal education
Structured, evidence-tiered briefings for principals and IC members — same framework Travis uses in anchor briefings, not ad hoc analyst summaries.
Deliverables
What you receive on subscription
Live dashboard
NII readings, six-domain breakdown, phase classification, and momentum — updated on calculation date.
Weekly signal reports
Regime classification, domain deterioration, and cross-entity stress — investment committee scannable.
Alert bulletins
Notifications when NII crosses phase boundaries or domain stress accelerates on watchlist entities.
Monthly flagship report
Full thermodynamic profile, narrative analysis, and evidence trace — board-ready PDF on calculation date.
Custom watchlist
Nation-states, sectors, or counterparties scoped to your mandate — scored on the same framework.
Quarterly Travis briefing
Direct framework walkthrough with Dr. Hanes — anchor briefings for investment committee prep.
Workflow
Investment committee integration
01
Scope watchlist entities
Nation-states, currency areas, or macro systems aligned to your mandate — scored on calculation date.
02
Weekly IC scan
Signal reports classify regime and domain deterioration. Alerts fire on phase boundaries.
03
Monthly flagship + Travis briefing
Board-ready PDF plus quarterly walkthrough with Dr. Hanes for investment committee prep.
04
Act on lead time
Rebalance, hedge, or hold with documented thermodynamic evidence — not after the market event.
Proof
68 months before Lehman
The definitive Jan 2003–Dec 2009 validation backtest shows NII crossing pre-crisis phase in January 2007 — deterministic scoring, primary-sourced evidence, reproducible methodology.
Public validation stat: 68 months before Lehman — deterministic NII, primary-sourced evidence.
View 2008 validationFAQ
How is this different from our geopolitical subscription?
Geopolitical services describe events and scenarios. The Index measures structural entropy across six domains and classifies phase transition probability — with scores you can replay and audit.
What is the minimum engagement?
Annual institutional subscriptions start at $50K. Relationship-driven onboarding includes watchlist scoping and a Travis anchor briefing.
Do you predict specific events?
No. We classify regime transition conditions and domain stress — not dated event forecasts. Narrative guardrails are part of every deliverable.
Next step
Start with a Travis briefing on your mandate.
Or score a system on your watchlist — structured summary briefing from current index signals after a brief institutional gate.