Mandate playbook
Score operating environments before distress trades.
For PE strategy and portfolio ops teams — thermodynamic scoring on sectors, regions, and counterparties to time entry, exit, and add-on windows with structural lead time.
Live track record
Structure vs. perception
Markets price perception. The Index measures structure. Updated June 2026.
Global Financial System
NII 1.84
Crisis
June 2026
Conventional · VIX
16.1
Same period. Priced in real time — not regime structure.
Conventional · HY spread
2.72%
Same period. Priced in real time — not regime structure.
Blind spot
PE diligence sees financials, not regime physics
Traditional PE workstreams — LBO models, management meetings, sector reports — excel at company-level fundamentals. They underweight systemic entropy building in the operating environment until spreads, defaults, or forced sellers confirm what the structure already showed.
Sector research
Backward-looking market sizing and comps. No phase classification for the sector's thermodynamic profile.
Credit and legal diligence
Contract and balance-sheet focused. Cascade risk across domains arrives as surprise, not signal.
Macro overlay decks
Optional slide in IC memo — not integrated into watchlist monitoring or alerts.
Use cases
How private equity teams use the Index
Portfolio company environment score
Map each portco's primary geography and sector to NII and domain breakdown — flag pre-crisis conditions before EBITDA compression shows up in quarterly reports.
Competitor distress windows
Monitor peer sets and sub-sectors for phase deterioration. Identify windows where forced asset sales may create entry opportunities.
Add-on and exit timing
Use regime trajectory to stress-test hold periods — avoid selling into stable phase misread as peak, or holding through uncaught transition.
LP and co-invest narrative
Evidence-tiered sector briefings for LP updates — defensible framework, not partner intuition alone.
Deliverables
What you receive on subscription
Live dashboard
NII readings, six-domain breakdown, phase classification, and momentum — updated on calculation date.
Weekly signal reports
Regime classification, domain deterioration, and cross-entity stress — investment committee scannable.
Alert bulletins
Notifications when NII crosses phase boundaries or domain stress accelerates on watchlist entities.
Monthly flagship report
Full thermodynamic profile, narrative analysis, and evidence trace — board-ready PDF on calculation date.
Custom watchlist
Nation-states, sectors, or counterparties scoped to your mandate — scored on the same framework.
Quarterly Travis briefing
Direct framework walkthrough with Dr. Hanes — anchor briefings for investment committee prep.
Workflow
Investment committee integration
01
Define sector and geo watchlist
Portco geographies, target sectors, and key counterparties — scored on the same framework as sovereign systems.
02
Monitor phase and cascade flags
Alerts when operating environments cross phase boundaries relevant to your hold period.
03
IC and deal team briefings
Pre-deal and annual review packs with domain bars and narrative — Travis briefing for strategy offsites.
04
Act on structural lead time
Bid, pass, or accelerate exits with thermodynamic evidence — not after the distressed process is public.
Proof
Same engine, sector scope
The framework validated on the 2008 financial system applies to any human system — industrial sectors, supply chains, and regional economies included.
Public validation stat: 68 months before Lehman — deterministic NII, primary-sourced evidence.
View 2008 validationFAQ
Is this company-level or macro?
Primary value is operating-environment and sector/regime scoring. Company financials stay in your models — the Index tells you when the environment around them is transitioning.
Can we score acquisition targets pre-LOI?
Yes. Watchlist entities can include target sectors and regions for quick thermodynamic profile before deep diligence spend.
How does pricing work for PE firms?
Annual institutional tiers from $50K based on watchlist scope and briefing cadence. Relationship onboarding with Travis.
Next step
Start with a Travis briefing on your mandate.
Or score a system on your watchlist — structured summary briefing from current index signals after a brief institutional gate.